The heat-wave is not only climatic. It is also geopolitical. It is worth remembering that August really is the cruellest month. The First World War started in August: the second, a few days later. Today, as the fateful month approaches, there are all sorts of rumours to alarm us. Above all, there is one crucial question. What is Mr Putin's next move?
The war in the Ukraine churns away, with no sign of a quick outcome. The Ukrainians seem to be in no mood to accept a cease-fire, which would mean losing territory in the Donbass. Ukrainian military technology is impressive. Their drones are damaging the Russian economy and causing considerable inconvenience to ordinary Russians. Meanwhile the meat-grinder grinds on, with hideous casualties on both sides. We are almost back in 1916/17. The two sides confront each other across the barbed wire and the trenches. Offensives are launched, at great cost in lives and minimal gain in territory. How long can this go on?
That leads to the next question. How secure is Mr Putin? He had not expected anything like this. By now, he intended to be a conqueror, up there with Peter the Great and Catherine the Great - and one might add, Joseph Stalin, who did create an empire, though it meant drowning vast territories in blood.
Blood: how long can the two sides continue to haemorrhage, and who will crack first? So far, the Ukrainians' morale has held out surprisingly well. A country recently famous for corruption seems to have undergone a moral rebirth - but at a terrible cost. There is not much sign of a moral rebirth in Russia. Kiev, of course, was the capital of the first Rus. If Mr Putin had brought it back into Russia, he would have been acclaimed. But now? Do most Russians think that it is worth the price, already enormous, showing every sign of growing and with only a very doubtful prospect of victory?
As for Czar Putin's personal security, there must be those in the West's secret services who will have views on that, but they are not revealing them in public. It does seem that Mr Putin has one quality in common with Stalin: a considerable propensity to paranoia. Those whom he identifies as potential threats have good reason to fear. But might one - or some - of them be tempted to strike first? Is there a General Cutthroat-ovitch, fed up with the waste and futility of the campaign, and determined to ensure that he will not be landed with the blame? That does not seem impossible.
There are other possibilities, none of them attractive. Rumours are circulating that Mr Putin is planning some dramatic move around the end of the month. This might mean a brutal bombing raid on Kiev, inflicting thousands of casualties. Or it could be an attack on some target in the Baltics. This would all be profoundly destabilising. There is a further unthinkable - let us hope - possibility. If Mr Putin thought that he was about to be overthrown (and probably killed) would he not be tempted to use a tactical nuclear weapon? We can only hope that there are still checks and balances in the Soviet system which would prevent him. Equally, the Chinese, on whom Russia is increasingly dependent, would be opposed to such a desperate measure.
One strategic analyst in whom I have great confidence, and he is almost always right, discounts the likelihood of Mr Putin attempting to raise the stakes. He believes that Putin is satisfied that his own position is secure. Also, the Russian tyrant still hopes that there is a limit to the losses that the Ukrainians can sustain, and when winter returns, fighting conditions should be more favourable to the Russians. If that is his calculation, it may be the best that we could hope for. That is not a pleasant outlook, especially for the people of Ukraine, but pleasant outlooks are not easy to find. We do not live in panglossian times. The new world order, the end of history and all those other optimistic expectations of the 1990s: that seems a long time ago.
Optimism: President Trump's gyrations over the cease-fire with Iran would be comical if they were not serious. There are some grounds for cautious hope. The Iranian economy is a shambles. Millions of Iranians would prefer a better life. But there are problems. The Mullahs can appeal to patriotism, and of course to religion. The Shia tradition of accepting suffering and embracing martyrdom will help the regime, and there is a further factor. However badly the economy suffers in an afflicted country, the ruling oppressors can usually ensure that there are enough resources to placate the police and the army. That may still be true in Iran and it certainly is in North Korea. Until recently, the same applied to Cuba, which kept Castroism in power, but it does seem that this benighted island's economy is no longer even a basket case. Someone has stolen the basket. We should also agree that if there is regime change in Cuba, Donald Trump deserves a lot of credit - though God knows how the economy could be put right.
In Britain today, everyone is complaining about the weather. Look beyond the weather forecasts, look beyond these shores, and we should recognise that there are worse ailments than too much sun. That statesman Prince Hassan of Jordan has a phrase which he often uses about his region: 'We live in a dangerous neighbourhood.' Today, the whole world is living in a dangerous neighbourhood. We will need wisdom to deal with this, and also luck.